Sustained residential-sector activity drives growth across Saskatchewan’s construction and maintenance sectors

The BuildForce Canada 2023–2032 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for Saskatchewan, anticipates that growth in the province’s residential sector could ease slightly in 2023 before rising to a peak in 2028. Activity in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, will remain elevated through 2024, supported by new and ongoing manufacturing, utility, mining, school, and health care projects, before slowing to 2026 as many of these projects conclude.

After posting an increase of six per cent in 2022, employment demands are expected to grow by a further eight per cent to a peak in 2027, before contracting across the remainder of the 10-year forecast period. By 2032, overall employment is expected to rise by three per cent, driven by growth in the province’s residential sector.

Such growth could strain already-challenged labour markets. Entering the forecast period, many of Saskatchewan’s residential and non-residential trades and occupations were experiencing tight labour markets. Meanwhile, employment is outgrowing the labour force, reducing the industry’s annual average unemployment rate to 6.3 per cent in 2022.

“Across the forecast period to 2032, BuildForce anticipates that as many as 8,600 workers, or 21 per cent of the province’s 2022 construction labour force, will exit the industry through retirement. At the same time, demand growth will require the addition of 2,200 workers, bringing the total recruitment requirement to 10,800 workers. This will keep labour force development front and centre for all contractors in the industry,” says Warren Douglas of the Construction Labour Relations Association of Saskatchewan Inc., in a press release.

The BuildForce analysis is based on existing known demands and do not take into account the federal government’s goal to double the number of new homes built across Canada over the next 10 years, nor the anticipated increase in demand for construction services related to the retrofit of existing residential, industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings to accommodate the electrification of the economy.

Given the province’s comparatively younger demographics, most of the industry’s hiring requirements could be met by an estimated 9,500 first-time new entrants under the age of 30 from the local population. This would leave a gap of about 1,300 workers that will need to be recruited from outside the local construction labour force. This hiring gap will be exclusive to the residential sector, as the non-residential sector is expected to attract more new-entrant workers than those it loses to retirement.

“The development of skilled tradespersons in the construction industry takes years, and often requires participation in a provincial apprenticeship program,” says Dennis Perrin, Prairies Director of CLAC. “Registrations in Saskatchewan’s 17 largest construction trades programs have declined over the past decade, which is of considerable concern to everyone in the province’s construction industry.”

Given the current pace of new apprenticeship registrations and completions, several trades may be at risk of undersupplying the number of new journeypersons required by 2032. These trades include Boom Truck Operator, Bricklayer, Carpenter, Construction Electrician, Insulator (heat and frost), Sheet Metal Worker, Steamfitter/Pipefitter, and Welder.

In 2022, there were approximately 6,030 women employed in Saskatchewan’s construction industry. That figure represents an increase of 310 over the 5,720 reported in 2021. Of them, 40 per cent worked directly in on-site construction. As a share of the total, women made up just six per cent of the 37,900 tradespeople employed in the industry in 2022. That figure is unchanged from 2021.

The Indigenous population is another group that presents recruitment opportunities for Saskatchewan’s construction industry. The province has been successful in increasing the share of Indigenous People in the construction workforce. In 2021, Indigenous workers accounted for approximately 14 per cent of the province’s construction labour force, which is an increase of one percentage point from the share observed in 2016. It is also notably higher than the share of Indigenous People represented in the overall labour force (11.5 per cent).

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement trends, Saskatchewan is expected to welcome an average of more than 9,900 newcomers every year through 2032, making the immigrant population a key potential source of labour force growth. Newcomers comprised about 10 per cent of the total construction labour force in 2021, which is smaller than the 16 per cent share of immigrants employed in the province’s overall labour force.